'There is a time for lowering one's expectations of the economy -- and therefore not trying to do too much in the Budget,' notes T N Ninan.
'The economy has to become the government's No. 1 priority, which it is not at the moment,' says T N Ninan.
'The finance minister in her Budget speech should spell out how exactly she intends to get back to the 7% track, and the hard decisions she intends to take in order to adjust to the realities of a slowing economy until growth momentum returns,' suggests T N Ninan.
'Perhaps GST was too complex a system for the Indian economy at its present stage of development,' argues T N Ninan.
Perhaps the calculation is that economic recovery will have been achieved before the next general election comes around, but such assumptions can come unstuck if current directions are not reversed quickly, cautions T N Ninan.
'When growth drops precipitously from 7% to 4.5% in four quarters, it is for all practical purposes a recession' notes T N Ninan.
'Mr Kejriwal is almost exactly the package that Mr Modi offers: Personal aggrandisement, the building of a personality cult through full-page newspaper ads day after day, populist schemes involving subsidies (whether affordable or required), abandonment of secular principles, exaggerated claims and no checks on leadership,' points out T N Ninan.
'There is a fiscal crisis building up, which might become apparent when the Finance Commission presents its report,' warns T N Ninan.
It became increasingly clear that the real negotiations the government had to conduct were with Indian business which was wary of yet another free trade agreement, points out T N Ninan.
'Growth would have to be 7% in the October-March period, if the year as a whole is to clock 6%.' 'Who would bet on that when, in the world of real numbers, both exports and imports have continued to fall, car sales have continued to slump, and the industrial production index shows yet again a drop in output?', asks T N Ninan.
'Fiscal purists would quarrel with the idea of selling assets to pay for current expenditure -- such as the payout to farmers and the health insurance programme -- for the obvious reason that the process cannot go on forever.' 'At some point, the list of assets available for sale will run out,' notes T N Ninan.consultations -- something already aired in connection with the lease of airports to the Adani group, says T N Ninan.
'Why do we make finance ministers go into contortions, to tell us that near 6% is 3.5%?' 'Why not encourage more open and full accounting so that the country knows the real picture,' asks T N Ninan.
'If businesses are focused on de-leveraging, they can hardly be investing. This is the price extracted by investment mistakes during UPA rule, and should have been foreseen. 'But Modi-I must share the blame, for muted reform of the financial sector, partisan policy in telecom, the harm done to exports by an over-priced rupee, and so on,' says T N Ninan.
If foreigners need reasonable taxes, why offer citizens something else? If foreign businessmen look for assurance on the rule of law, so do citizens, argues T N Ninan.
Today, with growth having slowed and macro-economic challenges in every direction, would the government have benefited from the advice of 'Harvard' economists? asks T N Ninan.
'Is India going to miss some more of its potential demographic dividend?' 'If so, it would be for two reasons: The demographic dividend can be fully exploited only if the people in the working age are actually working.' 'And second, if those working have proper education and skills, making them productive in the workplace.' 'On both counts, the country has fallen short,' points out T N Ninan.
'The fiscal situation is stressed (when is it not?!), economic growth has slowed, tax revenue has fallen short and the deficit is high if it is properly accounted,' points out T N Ninan.
'And so, despite demonetisation, people in business feel safe with Mr Modi,' points out T N Ninan.
Change will have to begin with Mr Modi, who by all accounts has shown little active interest in macro-economic issues, preferring instead to focus on the effective implementation of projects and programmes, points out T N Ninan.
'No one seems to have looked at the extent of money that is being borrowed by individuals, and the rising levels of household debt.' 'At their present rates of growth, personal loans in India could well become the largest category of bank credit in just two or three years,' cautions T N Ninan.
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